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Přeshraniční dopady fiskálních politik
Maleček, Petr ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee) ; Beck, Jiří (referee)
This study seeks to analyse and quantify cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies from two major points of view. The aggregate approach rests on the use of the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR) and its extension, the global vector autoregression model (GVAR). The discretionary fiscal impulse itself is then defined as a change in cyclically adjusted balance of the government sector, calculated at quarterly frequencies. This section is then complemented by a case study of a single measure: the German car scrapping scheme during 2009 and its effects on the Czech economy. It was found that cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies may be indeed present, in case certain conditions are met. Importantly, a fiscal impulse has to originate from a sufficiently large economy and there needs to be a tight trade linkage between examined countries. In most cases, cross-border effects have also been found of lesser magnitude than direct impacts of fiscal policies on the domestic country. Finally, as demonstrated on the German-Czech case, even a single fiscal measure can trigger substantial cross-border spillovers. It was estimated that this measure positively contributed to real GDP growth in 2009 in the Czech Republic by 0.44 pp.
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Kvantitativní analýza interakcí fiskální politiky a reálné ekonomiky v České republice
Valenta, Vilém ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Arlt, Josef (referee) ; Slačálek, Jiří (referee)
After many decades, macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy have returned to the centre of the economic policy debate. Both automatic fiscal stabilizers and discretionary fiscal stimuli have been used to support aggregate demand during the recent global economic crisis with a subsequent need for large-scale fiscal consolidations. In this context, a proper assessment of the size of automatic fiscal stabilizers and fiscal multipliers represents a key input for fiscal policymaking. This dissertation provides a quantitative analysis of the interactions between fiscal policy and real economy in the Czech Republic. The impact of real economy developments on public finances is assessed based on the methods of the OECD, the European Commission and the ESCB for the identification of general government structural balances, i.e. balances adjusted for effects of the economic cycle and net of one-off and other temporary transactions. I find that the underlying fiscal position, as approximated by the government structural balance, was mostly below the level stabilising the debt-to-GDP ratio since mid-1990s. An indistinct improvement in the structural balance can be identified in the period 2004--2007, which was subsequently reversed by the adverse structural impact of the world economic crisis. At the same time, dynamics of unadjusted fiscal balance was largely determined by one-off transactions in the past. The effects of fiscal policy on real economy are analysed using the structural VAR approach. I find that an increase in government spending has a temporary positive effect on output that peaks after one to two years with a multiplier of around 0.6. Tax multiplier appears to be small and, in contrast to standard Keynesian assumptions, positive. Government spending is supportive to private consumption, contradicting the hypothesis of Ricardian equivalence, but it crowds out private investment in the short run. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the analysis is complicated by rapidly changing economic environment in the period of the economic transition, relatively short available time series and a large number of one-off fiscal transactions.
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